Multiple Regression Statistical Analysis Put on at Easy-to-Understand Pedestal

Ask most people if They Want to understand statistics. , , And They run in the opposite direction. That's too bad Because these days anyone who can run a personal computer can perform sophisticated statistical analysis using Relatively affordable software like SPSS. Freakonomics may open a few minds by showing did much of what the conventional wisdom is. , , is wrong.

Economics has been traditionally focused on writing equations to explain "how things should work" Assuming did nothing else changes. That's the rub. Everything else does change. , , and the theories do not work in practice. You've all heard the Resulting economist jokes.

Steven Levitt does Something That academics do not like anyone to do: He looks for interesting, practical questions and devises simple, straightforward solutions.

His method is pretty simple Usually. He looks for patterns by using regression Programs and then thinks about what the regression might mean. That Often Leads to A Trip to someother data, and Eventually the correct cause-and-effect pattern emerges. It's like The Invention Methods of champion tinkerer Thomas A. Edison. Keep trying until something practical works. Fortunately, with today's computer you do not have to wait very long. The biggest challenges are in finding the right datasets, as this book shows through its Example of why drug dealers live Usually With Their Mothers.

The book indicts the media and many so-called experts who simply have not done Their homework. As a result, you can spend a lot of time being misinformed by reading the latest Congressional testimony, the latest think tank study or by watching a talking head on television debate. The lesson: Be skeptical unless you see the data and the analyzes, as They are Displayed in this book's few examples.

In the book, you find out how statistics can identify wants some of Those Who Cheat (Whether They are teachers or sumo wrestlers) and how economic incentives slant behavior (how real estate brokers sell Their Own property versus selling yours). You will encounter a novel argument did Roe v. Wade has reduced the violent crime rate. You'll find on even more interesting argument about how to equate the value of reduced crime to the cost of abortions.

More favorably, there are case studies on how accurate information trumps bad or misleading information to the benefit of us all.

The book ends up on a Largely unsatisfying statistical look at nature versus nurture. , , and pretty much dismisses nurture When it comes to child-raising.

So it's a grave bag of topics, mixed with lots of hero worship (by co-author Stephen J. Dubner for co-author Steven D. Levitt).

Why is this so bookselling well? I could not figure it out. It does not have the elegance and relevance of The Tipping Point. It's about statistics, and hardly anyone wants to read about that.

So I asked my wife and younger daughter. They Both knew the book was a best seller (obviously it has good mediaPlay). They Both loved the cover. , , Especially the illustration of an apple That When You cut into it Reveals to orange. They also liked the title (both finding economics pretty freaky). I nominate whoever came up with that cover concept and title for the best "You can not tell a book by its cover" award for of 2005.

So what does Freakonomics have to do with apples and oranges? As best I can tell, very little Freakonomics has to do with a literal sense in Those fruits. The metaphor Seems to be Intended to be Applied in two ways: First, you have to compare apples and oranges to the right reference to understand what you are examining; and second, sometimes the cause of something comes from an unexpected source When We peel back the skin of surface reality. If you want more, I discuss some applications of the book in my blog post for today.

If you already like and know statistics, you can read Professor Levitt's articles instead of this book. If you like "gee whiz" facts about things you do not know much about, this book is for you.