Read a book in 2013 on the prospective energy published in 2006 surprises size: large parts of the explored area are seen completely changed in the space of a few years. For example shale gas are downright ignored in the book. One can draw a simple conclusion: do not believe the forecasts, they are based on highly variable immediate elements. The other conclusion is that the big decisions themselves based on these forecasts, as "energy transition" strong risk being completely miss the target a few years.
