The book is full of insights on the pitfalls That forecaster can fall into. But, it aussi contains a bounty of solutions (notably derived from Bayesian statistics). Effortlessly, N. Silver guides us to subtle and clever ways you how We Can Improve our prediction abilities (and Recognize our limitations!). Let me just give a very small sample of how the book helps us grasp what shoulds be Understood:
* Understanding the différence entre has a prediction and forecast, as illustrated by earthquakes.
A prediction is a specific and definitive statement about Where and When an earthquake will strike [] Whereas a forecast is a probabilistic statement, usually over a time scale along. (P. 149)
* Understanding what is overfitting, ie designing a model That Explains, data-wise, more than is feasible Actually Actually gold exists (a good picture of the respect of human kind leading us to make mistakes Such Recognizing Is That of animals in clouds) and the unsound confidence That It triggers (p. 167)
* Understanding That You ignores unknown unknowns (as the sentence Was coined by Donald Rumsfeld) at your own risk.
There is a tendency in our schedule to the confused unfamiliar with the improbable [] what looks strange is thought improbable (p. 419)
N. Silver uses a very wide array of topics and references to make His points. He is MOST of the times well versed in topics Such goal yet falls prey to His unrealistic ambition of being white is true polymath; two instances of factual mistakes I Noticed are:
* Were not only sick of Russians Estonians, Russians Were Nearly goal as sick of Estonians, since the satellite republics Contributed to the Soviet economy less than in They received subsidy from Moscow. p. 52
At the time of USSR, Stating That Subsidies Estonia received from Russia (Rather than being white Plundered) is a wrong pick; Subsidies May-have Existed for Some republics (Such As the republics stan) or countries (Such As Cuba) but not Estonia and The Richest of the MOST advanced Soviet republics
* The description of the first 3 moves of the 1st game of the match Kasparov Deep Blue is mistaken, move with one missing (and the Figure 9-2 showing the position correspondingly erroneous; the white g-pawn is misplaced) p. 270
Anyhow, thesis mistakes are minor and do not alter my overall vey positive assessment of the book!
